SCAR EXCOM 2017 Paper 11: Report on PAIS Activities and Plans

PAIS 2016-2017 Report

Report Author(s): Laura De Santis and Tim Naish

Summary of activities from 2016-17 and any other important issues or factors:

• Significant new papers on past Antarctic ice sheet reconstructions and climate modelling have made significant contributions relevant to the next phase of IPCC over the past year.
• Rob DeConto (US) and Andrew Mackintosh (NZ) have been selected as Lead Authors on the IPCC special report on the cryosphere and the ocean.
• Tim Naish and Rob DeConto were invited to the scoping meeting of the IPCC special report on the impacts and mitigation pathways for stabilisation of global warming at 1.5C.
• Tim Naish delivered the SCAR Science Lecture at the 40th ATCM in Beijing in May on “What the Paris Climate Agreement Means for Antarctica”.
• Laura DeSantis has put major effort into organizing and hosting the PAIS Conference this September in Trieste. More than 200 abstracts have been accepted from more than 17 countries and including 130 student and early career researchers. The conference will cover the latest scientific results in reconstructing Antarctic ice sheet response to warmer climates and model development for predicting future ice sheet contribution to sea-level rise. There is also a focus on interdisciplinarity and far field consequences of Antarctic climate and ice sheet change. On the last day we will host a science to policy session focusing on high-priority research areas for the future PAIS programme work plan. We have invited Valerie Masson-Delmotte (Co Chair of IPCC Working Group 1 for AR6), Chuck Kennicutt (coordinator of SCAR Horizon Scan), and Yeadong Kim (co-coordinator of the ARC road map) to identify key scientific questions and the resources and co-operation required to address them.
• This has been a highly successful year for developing future plans for data acquisition on the Antarctic continental margin with several large drilling expeditions worth USD $100M approved within the International Ocean Discovery Program (Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, Wilkes Land margin, Scotia Sea).
• Rob McKay (NZ) and Laura DeSantis (Italy) have been appointed co-chief scientists on the IODP Ross Sea Expedition.
• Karsten Gohl (Germany) is the lead proponent on the Amundsen Sea IODP Expedition and led a successful Amundsen Sea oceanographic and shallow sediment coring expedition on the RV Polarstern in 2017.
• These IODP expeditions have been developed within the SCAR-PAIS Programme. PAIS has received praise from the IODP community for organising a clear strategic rationale for drilling on the Antarctic margin. These expeditions will provide much needed evidence of marine ice sheet instability and sensitivity under various past high CO2 warmer worlds for different subglacial basins under the West and East Antarctic ice sheets.
• Several cruises have been carried out by many nations with the aim of collecting site survey data for IODP expeditions 373, 374, 379 scheduled for 2018-2020 and for the other submitted-revised proposals for drilling the Antarctic margin post-2020.
• PAIS provides grants to students and early-career scientists from countries developing their Antarctic programmes (Chile, Denmark, Ukraine) for attending the PAIS conference.
• PAIS recruited Pamela Santibañez from Instituto Antártico Chileno (INACH, Chile), Mathieu Casado (LSCE and LIPhy, France) and Adam Campbell (Otago University, NZ) as APECS representatives on the PAIS steering committee.
• We ask permission to use other PAIS funds, (ca. USD $15,000 in addition to those that were already allocated to the conference) for allowing more students and early-career scientists to attend the conference.

SCAR EXCOM 2015 WP14: Report on PAIS (Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics)

Executive Summary

Title: Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics (PAIS)

Authors: C. Escutia, R. DeConto, K. Gohl, R. Larter, R. Powell, L. De Santis, M. Bentley

Introduction/ Background: 
The overarching goal of PAIS is to improve confidence in predictions of ice sheet and sea level response to future climate change and ocean warming. For this, PAIS aims to improve understanding of the sensitivity of East, West, and Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheets to a broad range of climatic and oceanic conditions. Study intervals span a range of timescales, including past “greenhouse” climates warmer than today, and times of more recent warming and ice sheet retreat during glacial terminations. The PAIS research philosophy is based on data-data and data-model integration and intercomparison, and the development of data transects, extending from the ice sheet interior to the deep sea. The data-transect concept will link ice core, continental, ice sheet-proximal, offshore, and far-field records of past ice sheet behaviour and sea level, yielding an unprecedented view of past changes in ice sheet geometry, volume, and ice sheet-ocean interactions. These integrated data sets will enable robust testing of a new generation of coupled Glacial Isostatic Adjustment-Ice Sheet-Atmosphere-Ocean models that include new reconstructions of past and present ice bed topography and bathymetry. PAIS will accomplish its objectives by: 1) facilitating the planning of new data-acquisition missions using emerging technologies; 2) encouraging data sharing and integration of spatially targeted transect data with modelling studies; and 3) initiating/expanding cross linkages among Antarctic research communities.

Important Issues or Factors: 
PAIS continent-to-abyss transects build on ongoing and planned projects and therefore guarantee continuous deliverables. PAIS has invited new members to the SC and plans to conduct a rotation of the co-chief officers at the end of 2015. PAIS plans to organize a Symposium in 2017 with budgetary implications (i.e., request to carry forward PAIS funding).

Recommendations/Actions and Justification: 
Support for PAIS plans for the remaining life of the Programme and input from EXCOM on PAIS plans based on the SCAR Strategic Plan and the Horizon Scan outcomes.

Expected Benefits/Outcomes: 
Publications and science relevant to large international programmes/initiatives and policy makers, enhancement of SCAR profile.

Partners: 
ANDRILL, IODP, ICDP, AntECO, APECS, IGBP-PAGES, IPICS, ISMASS, SCADM, SCERCE, SHALDRIL and other SCAR Expert and Action Groups.

Budget Implications: 
Request for confirmation of SCAR science programme funding at current level until the internal progress review. PAIS funding to be carried forward to help with organization costs on PAIS Symposium in 2017.

SCAR EXCOM 2013 WP13: Report on PAIS (Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics)

Executive Summary

Title:  Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics (PAIS)

Authors: C. Escutia, R. DeConto, K. Gohl, R. Larter, R. Powell, L. De Santis, M. Bentley

Introduction/ Background: 
The overarching goal of PAIS is to improve confidence in predictions of ice sheet and sea level response to future climate change and ocean warming. For this, PAIS aims to improve understanding of the sensitivity of East, West, and Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheets to a broad range of climatic and oceanic conditions. PAIS builds on the success of SCAR-ACE (Antarctic Climate Evolution), but with a new focus on the ice sheet rather than palaeoclimate reconstructions. Study intervals span a range of timescales, including past “greenhouse” climates warmer than today, and times of more recent warming and ice sheet retreat during glacial terminations. The PAIS research philosophy is based on data-data and data-model integration and intercomparison, and the development of “ice-to-abyss” data transects, extending from the ice sheet interior to the deep sea. The data-transect concept will link ice core, ice sheet-proximal, offshore, and far-field records of past ice sheet behaviour and sea level, yielding an unprecedented view of past changes in ice sheet geometry, volume, and ice sheet-ocean interactions. These integrated data sets will enable robust testing of a new generation of coupled Glacial Isostatic Adjustment-Ice Sheet-Atmosphere-Ocean models that include new reconstructions of past and present ice bed topography and bathymetry. PAIS will accomplish its objectives by: 1) facilitating the planning of new data-acquisition missions using emerging technologies; 2) encouraging data sharing and integration of spatially targeted transect data with modelling studies; and 3) initiating/expanding cross linkages among Antarctic research communities.

Important Issues or Factors: PAIS continent-to-abyss transects build on ongoing and planned projects and therefore guaratee continuous deliverables. 

Recommendations/Actions and Justification: Support and input from EXCOM on PAIS plans for the next two-three years of the Programme.

Expected Benefits/Outcomes: Significant publication output (both in content and numbers). Publications and science relevant to “Big- science” programmes and policy makers, enhancement of SCAR profile.

Partners: ANDRILL, AntECO, APECS, IGBP-PAGES, IODP, IPICS, ISMASS, SCADM, SCERCE, SHALDRIL and other SCAR Expert and Action Groups.

Budget Implications: Request for confirmation of SCAR science programme funding at current level until the internal progress review in two years.

SCAR XXXIV WP14b: PAIS External Review Report - Summary, Recommendations and Response

Authors: C. Escutia, R. DeConto, T. Naish, L. De Santis

Overview:

The overarching goal of PAIS is to improve confidence in predictions of ice sheet and sea-level response to future climate change and ocean warming. For this, PAIS aims to improve understanding of the sensitivity of East, West, and Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheets to a broad range of climatic and oceanic conditions. 

This paper summarises the deliverables and milestones, and future plans of PAIS. Appendices include a Membership list.

SCAR XXXIII WP14: Report on PAIS (Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics)

Executive Summary

Title: Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics (PAIS)

Authors: C. Escutia, R. DeConto, K. Gohl, R. Larter, R. Powell, L. De Santis, M. Bentley

Introduction/ Background:  
The overarching goal of PAIS is to improve confidence in predictions of ice sheet and sea level response to future climate change and ocean warming. For this, PAIS aims to improve understanding of the sensitivity of East, West, and Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheets to a broad range of climatic and oceanic conditions. Study intervals span a range of timescales, including past “greenhouse” climates warmer than today, and times of more recent warming and ice sheet retreat during glacial terminations. The PAIS research philosophy is based on data-data and data-model integration and intercomparison, and the development of “ice-to-abyss” data transects, extending from the ice sheet interior to the deep sea. The data-transect concept will link ice core, ice sheet-proximal, offshore, and far-field records of past ice sheet behaviour and sea level, yielding an unprecedented view of past changes in ice sheet geometry, volume, and ice sheet-ocean interactions. These integrated data sets will enable robust testing of a new generation of coupled Glacial Isostatic Adjustment-Ice Sheet-Atmosphere-Ocean models that include new reconstructions of past and present ice bed topography and bathymetry. PAIS will accomplish its objectives by: 1) facilitating the planning of new data-acquisition missions using emerging technologies; 2) encouraging data sharing and integration of spatially targeted transect data with modelling studies; and 3) initiating/expanding cross linkages among Antarctic research communities.

Important Issues or Factors: 
PAIS continent-to-abyss transects build on ongoing and planned projects and therefore guarantee continuous deliverables. 

Recommendations/Actions and Justification: 
Support for PAIS plans for the remaining life of the Programme and input from EXCOM on PAIS plans based on the SCAR Strategic Plan and the Horizon Scan outcomes.

Expected Benefits/Outcomes: 
Publications and science relevant to large international programmes/initiatives and policy makers, enhancement of SCAR profile.

Partners: 
ANDRILL, IODP, ICDP, AntECO, APECS, IGBP-PAGES, IPICS, ISMASS, SCADM, SCERCE, SHALDRIL and other SCAR Expert and Action Groups.

Budget Implications: 
Request for confirmation of SCAR science programme funding at current level until the internal progress review.

SCAR XXXIV WP14a: Report on PAIS (Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics)

Executive Summary:

Authors: Tim Naish and Laura De Santis

Important Issues or Factors: This report covers activities and issues since the PAIS SRP External Performance Review. In the last few months, major highlights for the PAIS SRP include:

• The international Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) scheduled 2 new Antarctic margin drilling expeditions, P751 – West Antarctic Ice sheet and Climate History, led by Rob McKay (NZ) to be drilled in the Ross Sea in 2018 summer, and P839 Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet history, led by Karsten Gohl (Germany) to be drilling in 2019 summer. These are in addition to Expedition 373 – Antarctic Cenozoic Paleoclimate led by Trevor Williams (USA) to be drilled using a mission specific platform in 2018 summer. The carefully planned transect of expeditions around Antarctica has been nurtured and developed by PAIS, and the IODP were very impressed with the way in which the community had worked together strategically to come up with a strong scientific case to bring the drillship back to Antarctica for three legs in two consecutive seasons.
• Antarctic Drilling workshop held in College Station on May 9-11th 2016 with USSSP, MagellanPlus, ANZIC and PAIS funds. The aim was to review the science objectives of drilling proposals currently in the IODP review system. Identify geographic areas and age windows that can best provide insight into Antarctic ice sheets under warm climates. This was put in context of IODP science plan and the broader context (SCAR, IPCC). The workshop was attended by 84 participants (65 from USA, 15 from Europe, 4 from the rest of the world) among which there were 24 students and 8 early-career scientists. The workshop was influential in getting the above expeditions scheduled and is developing the case to bring the drillship back to Antarctica in 2020-2021 to achieve also proposal 732 that is now at the facility board and got the approval also from the safety panel.
• PAIS members, Rob DeConto has been awarded of the 2016 Tinker Muse Prize in Antarctic Science and Policy, and Rob Dunbar has been awarded the 201 6 SCAR Medal for Excellence in Antarctic Research.
• Tim Naish and Rob DeConto were successfully nominated by SCAR and ICSU to attend a scoping meeting, in Geneva, 15th July, for the IPCC special report of limiting warming to 1.5°C, requested by the Paris Climate Accord. Of 17 nominations by ICSU, only SCAR’s nominations were successful.
• A PAIS conference has been announced for September 10th-16th in Trieste, Italy with the aim to present recent results that address still open questions in understanding the sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and its contribution to past and future sea level and climate change.
• While a number of scientific highlights were reported in the Review, since then of note is a paper in Nature by DeConto and Pollard. This paper presents new projections of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to future sea-level rise that elevate the IPCC projections for all Representative Concentration Pathways except RCP 2.6. The modelling was based on paleo data-model evaluation on past warm periods (e.g. Pliocene and Last Interglacial). This contribution from paleoclimate science has received an unprecedented level of media, public and scientific attention.

Recommendations/Actions and Justification:

The drilling ship the Joides Resolution, used by the IODP, is not an ice breaker and will need support from an ice breaker to secure its entrance and exit from the Ross Sea polynya in January-March 2018 and may need support in the Amundsen Sea continental shelf in January-March 2019. In the case of the Ross Sea and the Amundsen Sea, the ice breaker would not necessarily need to be close by the Joides Resolution for the entire length of the two drilling legs, but it will be needed for opening the passage and on standby for potential extraction. IODP have indicated that they would appreciate any ice breaker support SCAR COMNAP could provide. They have some budget for purchasing ice breaker support, but would also be looking for partnership with in kind support from another party.

SCAR EXCOM have endorsed a request to COMNAP to provide, in partnership with IODP, ice breaker support for the two scheduled PAIS-IODP expeditions to be drilled by the Joides Resolution in 2018 and 2019. Jeronimo Lopez will brief COMNAP at Goa meeting in August, 2016.

The long-term schedule indicates that the IODP drill ship will be back in the South Atlantic in 2020 with the potential to drill 732 on the peninsula and any other proposals that might be at the Facility Board for scheduling. It takes a minimum of 3 years to get a proposal to scheduling stage and there are a number of potential proposals in the Weddell and Scotia seas in the pipeline. This presents an unprecedented opportunity for the Antarctic community to have another 1 or 2 legs of scientific drilling in 2020-2021.

Research being conducted and co-ordinated under the PAIS umbrella is having a major impact on policy relevant climate change science through IPCC, and is gaining major support from the IODP. Especially as the Antarctic contribution to future sea-level rise is considered a number one research priority (e.g. as articulated in a recent NRC/NSF study for setting research priorities for NSF Antarctic program).

The purpose of the PAIS Trieste meeting is to identify future priorities for Antarctic paleoclimate research within the context of the SCAR Horizon Scan and the anticipated needs of the IPCC AR6 process, which is now getting underway. PAIS researchers are well placed to make a major contribution to both the publication of relevant science but also as co-authors. An important requirement is that the SCAR SRPs and non-SCAR communities develop closer linkages as climate change is a unifying theme that will have consequences for both biological and physical systems. PAIS is attempting to do this through its scientific programme and invitations to the Trieste meeting. AntClim21 is also doing this through a workshop being held in Kuala Lumpur after the SCAR OSC.

We recommend that SCAR continue to promote an interdisciplinary approach with how its research contributes to Antarctic and global climate change research and issues, ensuring SCAR umbrella research is well integrated into science that supports the ATS (e.g. CEP CAMMLR) and science that supports IPCC.

Budget Implications:

PAIS funds to support the following in the rest 2016:

• Support for scientists students to attend SCAR OSC
• Sponsorship of International Conference on Paleooceanography (Utrecht University) PAIS requires funds to support the following in 2017:

PAIS requires funds to support the following in 2017:

• Trieste conference, September
• Participation of PAIS members in IPCC scoping meetings and AR6
• Support for PAIS members and students to attend PAIS Trieste meeting
• Support for students and early career scientists to attend workshops and summer schools (e.g. Urbino SS in Paleoclimatology)
• Support for PAIS steering committee meetings at EGU and/or AGU.

PAIS is attempting to carry forward ~$15K of funds into 2017 for the Trieste meeting, and is looking at other sources of sponsorship. Nevertheless, the range of activities planned for 2017 is going to put pressure on our budget and we request any additional increase to the 2017 PAIS budget that SCAR can afford.

SCAR XXXII WP10: Proposal for a new SRP: Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics (PAIS)